Risk of and factors influencing the progression from acute to recurrent acute to chronic pancreatitis

Abstract

Objectives & Aims Acute pancreatitis (AP) recurrence rates range from 11 to 36 % yet accurately predicting recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and its progression to chronic pancreatitis (CP) after an initial episode remains challenging. Thus, this study explored the risk factors contributing to RAP and its progression to CP. Methods This retrospective study included patients with AP from three tertiary medical centers between January 2010 and December 2017. The patients were followed up for up to 60 months. The primary endpoint was the incidence of RAP and CP; risk factors influencing these outcomes were also identified. Results Overall, 501 patients were included, of which 164 (32.7 %) experienced RAP, and 71 (14.2 %) progressed to CP. The leading causes of AP were alcohol consumption (43.1 %), gallstones (41.5 %) and hypertriglyceridemia (4.4 %). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that smoking (HR, 4.09; 95 % CI, 2.752-6.078, p < 0.001), and organ failure after 48 h of hospitalization (HR, 3.52; 95 % CI, 1.22-10.19, p < 0.02) were significant risk factors for RAP. Significant risk factors for progression to CP included age over 60 years (HR, 5.29; 95 % CI, 1.25-22.47, p = 0.024), smoking (HR, 2.50; 95 % CI, 1.04-6.01, p = 0.04), alcohol consumption (HR, 8.79; 95 % CI, 2.06-37.43, p = 0.003), computed tomography severity index (CTSI) (HR, 1.22; 95 % CI, 1.04-1.44, p = 0.015), and recurrence of AP (HR, 70.69; 95 % CI, 2.61-1914.86, p = 0.011). In alcohol-induced RAP patients, >= 3 recurrences (HR, 4.18; 95 % CI, 1.75-9.98, p = 0.001) was significant risk factor for progression to CP. Conclusions Alcohol consumption was the predominant cause of AP and RAP. The severity of the initial AP episode was the key determinant for RAP, and RAP was the most significant risk factor for the progression to CP. Therefore, smoking and alcohol cessation are important to prevent the development of recurrent AP and CP during long-term follow-up.