Time-to-surgery paradigms: wait time and surgical outcomes in critically Ill patients who underwent emergency surgery for gastrointestinal perforation

Abstract

Background: Waiting time for emergency abdominal surgery have been known to be linked to mortality. However, there is no clear consensus on the appropriated timing of surgery for gastrointestinal perforation. We investigated association between wait time and surgical outcomes in emergency abdominal surgery.

Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort study evaluated adult patients who underwent emergency surgery for gastrointestinal perforations between January 2003 and September 2021. Risk-adjusted restricted cubic splines modeled the probability of each mortality according to wait time. The inflection point when mortality began to increase was used to define early and late surgery. Outcomes among propensity-score matched early and late surgical patients were compared using percent absolute risk differences (RDs, with 95% CIs).

Results: Mortality rates began to rise after 16 h of waiting. However, early and late surgery groups showed no significant differences in 30-day mortality (11.4% vs. 5.7%), ICU stay duration (4.3 ± 7.5 vs. 4.3 ± 5.2 days), or total hospital stay (17.4 ± 17.0 vs. 24.7 ± 23.4 days). Notably, patients waiting over 16 h had a significantly higher ICU readmission rate (8.6% vs. 31.4%). The APACHE II score was a significant predictor of 30-day mortality.

Conclusions: Although we were unable to reveal significant differences in mortality in the subgroup analysis, we were able to find an inflection point of 16 h through the RCS curve technique.

Trial registration: Formal consent was waived due to the retrospective nature of the study, and ethical approval was obtained from the institutional research committee of our institution (B-2110-714-107) on 6 October 2021.