Synthetic Data Improve Survival Status Prediction Models in Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer

Abstract

Purpose: In artificial intelligence-based modeling, working with a limited number of patient groups is challenging. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate whether applying synthetic data generation methods to the clinical data of small patient groups can enhance the performance of prediction models.

Materials and methods: A data set collected by the Cancer Registry Library Project from the Yonsei Cancer Center (YCC), Severance Hospital, between January 2008 and October 2020 was reviewed. Patients with colorectal cancer younger than 50 years who started their initial treatment at YCC were included. A Bayesian network-based synthesizing model was used to generate a synthetic data set, combined with the differential privacy (DP) method.

Results: A synthetic population of 5,005 was generated from a data set of 1,253 patients with 93 clinical features. The Hellinger distance and correlation difference metric were below 0.3 and 0.5, respectively, indicating no statistical difference. The overall survival by disease stage did not differ between the synthetic and original populations. Training with the synthetic data and validating with the original data showed the highest performances of 0.850, 0.836, and 0.790 for the Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost models, respectively. Comparison of synthetic data sets with different epsilon parameters from the original data sets showed improved performance >0.1%. For extremely small data sets, models using synthetic data outperformed those using only original data sets. The reidentification risk measures demonstrated that the epsilons between 0.1 and 100 fell below the baseline, indicating a preserved privacy state.

Conclusion: The synthetic data generation approach enhances predictive modeling performance by maintaining statistical and clinical integrity, and simultaneously reduces privacy risks through the application of DP techniques.