A Predictive Model for Large-for-Gestational-Age Infants among Korean Women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Using Maternal Characteristics and Fetal Biometric Parameters

Abstract

Background: With increasing incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), newborn infants with perinatal morbidity, including large-for-gestational-age (LGA) or macrosomia, are also increasing. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for LGA infants with GDM mothers.

Methods: This was a retrospective case-control study of 660 women with GDM and singleton pregnancies in four tertiary care hospitals from 2006 to 2013 in Korea. Biometric parameters were obtained at diagnoses of GDM and within two weeks before delivery. These biometric data were all transformed retrospectively into Z-scores calculated using a reference. Interval changes of values between the two periods were obtained. Multivariable logistic and stepwise backwards regression analyses were performed to develop the most parsimonious predictive model. The prediction model included pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), head circumference (HC), Z-score at 24 + 0 to 30 + 6 weeks' gestation, and abdominal circumference (AC) Z-score at 34 + 0 to 41 + 6 weeks within 2 weeks before delivery. The developed model was then internally validated.

Results: Our model's predictive performance (area under the curve (AUC): 0.925) was higher than estimated fetal weight (EFW) within two weeks before delivery (AUC: 0.744) and the interval change of EFW Z-score between the two periods (AUC: 0.874). It was internally validated (AUC: 0.916).

Conclusions: A clinical model was developed and internally validated to predict fetal overgrowth in Korean women with GDM, which showed a relatively good performance.