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Predicting survival in heart failure: a risk score based on machine-learning and change point algorithm

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dc.contributor.author강석민-
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-11T05:50:09Z-
dc.date.available2022-03-11T05:50:09Z-
dc.date.issued2021-08-
dc.identifier.issn1861-0684-
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/187822-
dc.description.abstractObjective: Machine learning (ML) algorithm can improve risk prediction because ML can select features and segment continuous variables effectively unbiased. We generated a risk score model for mortality with ML algorithms in East-Asian patients with heart failure (HF). Methods: From the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry, we used the data of 3683 patients with 27 continuous and 44 categorical variables. Grouped Lasso algorithm was used for the feature selection, and a novel continuous variable segmentation algorithm which is based on change-point analysis was developed for effectively segmenting the ranges of the continuous variables. Then, a risk score was assigned to each feature reflecting nonlinear relationship between features and survival times, and an integer score of maximum 100 was calculated for each patient. Results: During 3-year follow-up time, 32.8% patients died. Using grouped Lasso, we identified 15 highly significant independent clinical features. The calculated risk score of each patient ranged between 1 and 71 points with a median of 36 (interquartile range: 27-45). The 3-year survival differed according to the quintiles of the risk score, being 80% and 17% in the 1st and 5th quintile, respectively. In addition, ML risk score had higher AUCs than MAGGIC-HF score to predict 1-year mortality (0.751 vs. 0.711, P < 0.001). Conclusions: In East-Asian patients with HF, a novel risk score model based on ML and the new continuous variable segmentation algorithm performs better for mortality prediction than conventional prediction models. Clinical trial registration: Unique identifier: INCT01389843 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01389843 .-
dc.description.statementOfResponsibilityrestriction-
dc.languageEnglish-
dc.publisherSpringer-
dc.relation.isPartOfCLINICAL RESEARCH IN CARDIOLOGY-
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 2.0 KR-
dc.subject.MESHAged-
dc.subject.MESHFemale-
dc.subject.MESHHeart Failure / mortality*-
dc.subject.MESHHumans-
dc.subject.MESHMachine Learning*-
dc.subject.MESHMale-
dc.subject.MESHMiddle Aged-
dc.subject.MESHPredictive Value of Tests-
dc.subject.MESHPrognosis-
dc.subject.MESHRegistries-
dc.subject.MESHRepublic of Korea-
dc.subject.MESHRisk Assessment*-
dc.subject.MESHSurvival Rate-
dc.titlePredicting survival in heart failure: a risk score based on machine-learning and change point algorithm-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.contributor.collegeCollege of Medicine (의과대학)-
dc.contributor.departmentDept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실)-
dc.contributor.googleauthorWonse Kim-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJin Joo Park-
dc.contributor.googleauthorHae-Young Lee-
dc.contributor.googleauthorKye Hun Kim-
dc.contributor.googleauthorByung-Su Yoo-
dc.contributor.googleauthorSeok-Min Kang-
dc.contributor.googleauthorSang Hong Baek-
dc.contributor.googleauthorEun-Seok Jeon-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJae-Joong Kim-
dc.contributor.googleauthorMyeong-Chan Cho-
dc.contributor.googleauthorShung Chull Chae-
dc.contributor.googleauthorByung-Hee Oh-
dc.contributor.googleauthorWoong Kook-
dc.contributor.googleauthorDong-Ju Choi-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00392-021-01870-7-
dc.contributor.localIdA00037-
dc.relation.journalcodeJ03070-
dc.identifier.eissn1861-0692-
dc.identifier.pmid34259921-
dc.identifier.urlhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-021-01870-7-
dc.subject.keywordChange-point analysis-
dc.subject.keywordGrouped Lasso-
dc.subject.keywordHeart failure-
dc.subject.keywordMachine learning-
dc.subject.keywordMortality-
dc.subject.keywordPrognostic model-
dc.contributor.alternativeNameKang, Seok Min-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor강석민-
dc.citation.volume110-
dc.citation.number8-
dc.citation.startPage1321-
dc.citation.endPage1333-
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationCLINICAL RESEARCH IN CARDIOLOGY, Vol.110(8) : 1321-1333, 2021-08-
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers

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