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Preoperative prediction of futile surgery in patients with radiologically resectable or borderline resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma

Authors
 Hee Seung Lee  ;  Chansik An  ;  Ho Kyoung Hwang  ;  Yun Ho Roh  ;  Huapyong Kang  ;  Jung Hyun Jo  ;  Moon Jae Chung  ;  Jeong Youp Park  ;  Chang Moo Kang  ;  Seung Woo Park  ;  Dong Sup Yoon  ;  Woo Jung Lee  ;  Si Young Song  ;  Seungmin Bang 
Citation
 JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY AND HEPATOLOGY, Vol.35(3) : 499-507, 2020 
Journal Title
 JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY AND HEPATOLOGY 
ISSN
 0815-9319 
Issue Date
2020
Keywords
Decision modeling ; Laparotomy ; Multidetector computed tomography ; Neoplasm micrometastasis ; Pancreatic ductal carcinoma
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM: The aim of this study is to identify the predictive factors for futile surgery in patients with radiologically resectable or borderline resectable pancreatic cancer and to develop a prediction model. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients who underwent pancreatic surgery for pancreatic cancer between 2006 and 2017. To identify independent risk factors for futile surgery, logistic regression and random forest analyses were performed in the training cohort, based on which a nomogram was established. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were validated in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Of 389 patients who underwent pancreatic surgery, the laparotomy was futile in 40 patients (10.3%). In the training cohort, the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level of ≥ 150 U/mL (P = 0.003), the presence of suspicious lymph node (P = 0.013), and more extensive peripancreatic tumor infiltration (P < 0.001) were independent predictive factors for futile surgery. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index of the nomogram was high in the training cohort, 0.826 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.745-0.907. This model also showed a good discriminative performance in the validation cohort, with a concordance index of 0.831. CONCLUSIONS: We established and validated a novel nomogram that predicts the risk of futile surgery due to occult distant metastasis in patients with radiologically resectable or borderline resectable pancreatic cancer.
Full Text
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jgh.14837
DOI
10.1111/jgh.14837
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Radiology (영상의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Surgery (외과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Yonsei Biomedical Research Center (연세의생명연구원) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kang, Chang Moo(강창무) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5382-4658
Kang, Huapyong(강화평) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1790-0809
Roh, Yun Ho(노윤호)
Park, Seung Woo(박승우) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8230-964X
Park, Jeong Youp(박정엽) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-8606
Bang, Seungmin(방승민) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5209-8351
Song, Si Young(송시영) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1417-4314
An, Chansik(안찬식) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0484-6658
Yoon, Dong Sup(윤동섭) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6444-9606
Lee, Woo Jung(이우정) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9273-261X
Lee, Hee Seung(이희승) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2825-3160
Chung, Moon Jae(정문재) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5920-8549
Jo, Jung Hyun(조중현) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2641-8873
Hwang, Ho Kyoung(황호경) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4064-7776
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/175648
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