향후 10년간의 병상수요 측정 및 병상수 증가양상에 관한 연구

Abstract

[한글]

70년대 이후 계속된 우리나라의 급격한 경제성장은 의료수요를 크게 증가시켰다.

우리와 비슷한 수준의 국가에 비해서 병상수가 극히 적은 우리나라는 지난 3년전부터 비로소 병상수가 점증하기 시작했으며 77년부터 시작된 의료보호, 의료보험제도 실시는 의료수요를 더욱 가속화시켜 병상수의 증가를 더욱 촉진하게 되었다.

이에 따라 우리나라는 정부시책으로 국, 공립의료기관의 대폭적인 증설이 시도되고 있으며 사립의료기관들도 기존 의료기관을 중심으로 대폭적 시설투자와 함께 계열병원을 신축하는 등 증가된 의료수요에 부응하려는 노력을 경주하고 있다.

본 연구는 앞으로 계속될 의료수요의 증가에 따라 의료기관의 신설이 전국 곳곳에서 이루어지고 있는 현 시점에서 첫째, 세계 여러 나라의 경제수준과 병상수의 현황을 살피고 둘째, 어떤 양상으로 시설이 증가했으며 셋째, 현재 우리나라의 부족 의료시설은 어느 정

도이고 넷째, 앞으로는 또 얼마만큼의 의료시설이 연차적으로 증가되어져야 할 것인가를 알아보려고 했다.

이상의 목적을 위하여 경제성장(GNP)과 병상시설(BED) 수와의 상관관계를 알아보았으며, 병상증가 양상을 예측하기 위하여 일본, 미국, 대만 등 우리나라와 경제성장 양상이 비슷한 선진국들의 과거 20여년간의 GNP증가에 따른 병상증가 양상을 알아보았다(경제기획

원 경제백서 1976).

이같은 방법으로 얻은 결과를 요약하면

1. 병상수를 증가시키는데 경제성장이 중요한 요인(r**2 = 49%)이 되고 있으며

2. 세계적 추세에 기준을 둘 경우 우리나라의 병상수가 1978년에 62,027개가 더 필요할 것으로 추정되었다.

3. 병상수는 GNP $700에서 $1,700까지 사이에 급증하고 그 이상부터는 plateau를 이루고 있는 양상이 있음을 찾아볼 수 있었다.

Estimation of Number of Beds and Patterns of Their Increase for the Coming 10 Years

Choi, Dahl Sik

Graduate School of Health Science and Management Tonsei University

(Directed by Professor Kim Il Soon, M.D.)

Korea has been suffered from both the shortage of beds and lower bed occupancy

rates in the past. With a result of remarkable growth f the national economy for

the past decade, however, medical care demands in Korea have been increasing

rapidly. From three years ago the number of hospital beds has started to show an

apparent increase to meet the needs. The implementation of the Medical Insurance

program which has been effective from July, 1977 has changed much of the potential

demand into real. The medical care demand as well as demand for hospital beds is

expected to increase continuously for the next 10 years with the continuous

economic growth and the increasing coverage by the health insurance scheme.

Lately, Government is also planning for the expansion of the national and public

hospitals on a grand scale to meet rapidly increasing demand, and also many private

foundations and existing hospitals have started to invest to either building new

hospitals or expanding the existing hospitals. However, no study has ever been

performed to estimate how many more hospital beds would be necessary for the coming

10 years for Korea. Without knowing the needed number of beds in the future, the

build increase of hospital beds might produce great waste of effort and fund.

Under these circumstances, this report is aimed to find out following subjects.

1) The present status of the hospital beds in Korea.

2) Status of the existing hospital beds world ever.

3) How, when and to what extent, have the hospital beds been critically improved,

4) Finally, estimated of number of hospital beds which might be needed to meet

the demand for hospital beds for the coming 10 years.

To accomplish above objectives following methods have been applied:

1) Finding out correlation coefficient between the economical growth(GNP) and the

number of beds, and 2) Identifying changing patterns of hospital beds of the

advanced countries similar to Korea in terms of the economical growth, Japan,

Taiwan and the USA for the last 20years.

Results obtained from the study are summarized below:

1) Growth of economy plays a major role in increasing the hospital beds(49%).

2) From $700 to $1,700 GNP per capita. Number of beds are sharply increased with

the shape of biological curve, and over $1,700, the curve shows plateau.

3) It is estimated that Korea needs 62,027 more hospital beds for the coming 10

years.

[영문]

Korea has been suffered from both the shortage of beds and lower bed occupancy rates in the past. With a result of remarkable growth f the national economy for the past decade, however, medical care demands in Korea have been increasing rapidly. From three years ago the number of hospital beds has started to show an apparent increase to meet the needs. The implementation of the Medical Insurance program which has been effective from July, 1977 has changed much of the potential demand into real. The medical care demand as well as demand for hospital beds is

expected to increase continuously for the next 10 years with the continuous economic growth and the increasing coverage by the health insurance scheme.

Lately, Government is also planning for the expansion of the national and public hospitals on a grand scale to meet rapidly increasing demand, and also many private foundations and existing hospitals have started to invest to either building new

hospitals or expanding the existing hospitals. However, no study has ever been performed to estimate how many more hospital beds would be necessary for the coming 10 years for Korea. Without knowing the needed number of beds in the future, the

build increase of hospital beds might produce great waste of effort and fund.

Under these circumstances, this report is aimed to find out following subjects.

1) The present status of the hospital beds in Korea.

2) Status of the existing hospital beds world ever.

3) How, when and to what extent, have the hospital beds been critically improved,

4) Finally, estimated of number of hospital beds which might be needed to meet the demand for hospital beds for the coming 10 years.

To accomplish above objectives following methods have been applied:

1) Finding out correlation coefficient between the economical growth(GNP) and the number of beds, and 2) Identifying changing patterns of hospital beds of the advanced countries similar to Korea in terms of the economical growth, Japan, Taiwan and the USA for the last 20years.

Results obtained from the study are summarized below:

1) Growth of economy plays a major role in increasing the hospital beds(49%).

2) From $700 to $1,700 GNP per capita. Number of beds are sharply increased with the shape of biological curve, and over $1,700, the curve shows plateau.

3) It is estimated that Korea needs 62,027 more hospital beds for the coming 10 years.