허혈성심질환 발생예측모형(health risk appraisal) 개발 연구

Abstract

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to develop a health risk appraisal (HRA) model of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and to evaluate the model’s ability to accurately predict individual IHD risk. Methods: The sample data were from a prospective cohort study in Korea with a follow-up period of 10 years. Between 1993 and 2002 (8,635,809 person-year), there were 10,528 incident cases of IHD (121.9/100,000 person- years). First, we developed the HRA based on the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model using a prospective cohort data with split-half data (50% random sample). Second, we compared the probability of IHD predicted by the model to the actual number of cases observed in the other 50% of the random sample of the study population. Results: The HRA model of IHD developed in the study includes age, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking, and diabetes mellitus for men and women. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the HRA model validation. Compared with men and women in the lower 10 percentile of predicted risk, those in the upper 10 percentile had an increased actual risk of IHD. The area-under-the-curve in ROC was 0.75 to 0.80. Conclusion: The models performance was satisfactory for estimating IHD risk for individual men and women aged 30∼79 years