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External validation of nomogram for the prediction of recurrence after curative resection in early gastric cancer

Title
External validation of nomogram for the prediction of recurrence after curative resection in early gastric cancer
Authors
J. H. Kim;H. S. Kim;S. Y. Rha;S. H. Noh;H. C. Chung;J. F. Lai;H. C. Jeung;K. Y. Kim;C. M. Nam;W. Y. Seo
Issue Date
2012
Journal Title
Annals of Oncology
ISSN
0923-7534
Citation
Annals of Oncology, Vol.23(2) : 361~367, 2012
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Nomograms are statistics-based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. In our previous study, we developed a nomogram that predicts recurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) after curative resection. We carried out this study to externally validate our EGC nomogram. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The EGC nomogram was established from a retrospective EGC database that included 2923 consecutive patients. This nomogram was independently externally validated for a cohort of 1058 consecutive patients. For the EGC nomogram validation, we assessed both discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Within the follow-up period (median 37 months), a total of 11 patients (1.1%) experienced recurrence. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.7 (P = 0.02) and the result of the overall C index was 0.82 [P = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-1.00]. The goodness of fit test showed that the EGC nomogram had significantly good fit for 1- and 2-year survival intervals (P = 0.998 and 0.879, respectively). The actual and predicted survival outcomes showed good agreement, suggesting that the survival predictions from the nomogram are well calibrated externally. CONCLUSIONS: A preexisting nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of EGC after surgery was externally validated. The nomogram is useful for accurate and individual prediction of DFS, patient prognostication, counseling, and follow-up planning.
URI

http://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/89527
DOI
10.1093/annonc/mdr118
Appears in Collections:
1. 연구논문 > 1. College of Medicine > Dept. of Internal Medicine
1. 연구논문 > 5. Research Institutes > Oral Cancer Research Institute
1. 연구논문 > 1. College of Medicine > Dept. of Preventive Medicine
Yonsei Authors
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