Cited 136 times in
Probability of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | 신재일 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-02-23T00:58:27Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-02-23T00:58:27Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021-09 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2168-622X | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/187469 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Importance: Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research. Objective: To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P. Data sources: PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles. Study selection: Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P. Data extraction and synthesis: Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves. Main outcome and measures: Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted. Results: A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%). Conclusions and relevance: In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population. | - |
dc.description.statementOfResponsibility | restriction | - |
dc.language | English | - |
dc.publisher | American Medical Association | - |
dc.relation.isPartOf | JAMA PSYCHIATRY | - |
dc.rights | CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 KR | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Adolescent | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Adult | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Disease Progression* | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Disease Susceptibility* | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Female | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Humans | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Longitudinal Studies | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Male | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Probability | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Psychotic Disorders / epidemiology* | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Risk Assessment* | - |
dc.subject.MESH | Young Adult | - |
dc.title | Probability of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.contributor.college | College of Medicine (의과대학) | - |
dc.contributor.department | Dept. of Pediatrics (소아과학교실) | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Gonzalo Salazar de Pablo | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Joaquim Radua | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Joana Pereira | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Ilaria Bonoldi | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Vincenzo Arienti | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Filippo Besana | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Livia Soardo | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Anna Cabras | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Lydia Fortea | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Ana Catalan | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Julio Vaquerizo-Serrano | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Francesco Coronelli | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Simi Kaur | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Josette Da Silva | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Jae Il Shin | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Marco Solmi | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Natascia Brondino | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Pierluigi Politi | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Philip McGuire | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Paolo Fusar-Poli | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2021.0830 | - |
dc.contributor.localId | A02142 | - |
dc.relation.journalcode | J01202 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2168-6238 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 34259821 | - |
dc.identifier.url | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2781884 | - |
dc.contributor.alternativeName | Shin, Jae Il | - |
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor | 신재일 | - |
dc.citation.volume | 78 | - |
dc.citation.number | 9 | - |
dc.citation.startPage | 970 | - |
dc.citation.endPage | 978 | - |
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation | JAMA PSYCHIATRY, Vol.78(9) : 970-978, 2021-09 | - |
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