Establishment of Individual Prediction Model According to Risk Factorsfor Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Korea : Establishment of Individual Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Korean Journal of Hepatology (대한간학회지)
Korean Journal of Hepatology (대한간학회지), Vol.7(4) : 449~458, 2001
Background / Aim : We identified risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)through a nine-year follow-up study, ending last year, of 4,339 patients with chronic liver disease. The aim of this study was to establish an individual prediction model according to risk factors for the development of HCC. Methods : We studied a total of 1994 patients who had regular check-ups from January 1990 to December 1998. We analyzed the risk factors and established the individual prediction model to predict the risk rate for HCC using logistic regression analysis. We applied the model to patients who were enrolled over the next two years. Results : 90(9.05%) out of 994 patients developed HCC during a mean of 33 months of follow-up. The risk index for individual patients was made by considering the relative risk level of statistically significant risk factors. From 1999 to 2000, 480 patients were newly enrolled and divided into a low risk group(less than 5% probability), an intermediate risk group(5% to 10% probability), and a high risk group(more than 10% probability). According to this classification, 1 of 191 patients in the low risk group(0.523%), 5 of 176 patients intermediate risk group(2.84%), and 21 of 113 patients in the high risk group(18.6%) were diagnosed with HCC. Conclusion : We confirmed the reliability of the newly established individual prediction model for the screening of HCC. This model may help screening programs to be done effectively by focusing on high risk groups for HCC.