Ownchildren방법에 의한 출생율 수준의 추계에 영향을 미치는 변수에 대한 연구

Abstract

[한글]

Ownchildren은 한 가구내에서 가구주와의 관계가 확실하고 어머니와 같이 거주하는 10세 미만의 자녀로 정의한다.

Ownchildren방법에 의한 출생율 추계는 센서스 자료로부터 Ownchi1dren과 부인을 추계하려는 연도까지 역 생존시킴으로서 가능하다. 이 방법은 출생율을 추계하는 회고적 방법이기 때문에 출생율 추계에 영향을 주는 변수에 대한 분석이 필요하다. 영향을 주는 변수로는 Ownchildren과 부인의 연령별 사망율, 어머니와 같이 거주하는 자녀수의 비, 센서스조사 누락, 연령의 부정확성등이 있다.

1970년 센서스자료로부터 이 변수들의 조정에 따른 출생율 추계 결과는 다음과 같다.

1. 1970년 센서스 자료로부터 네가지 변수들을 조정하지 않고 추계한 1961년부터 1970년까지의 출생율은 1971년 전국 출산력 조사에 외해 추계된 출생율보다 연간 평균 12.4% 낮게 추계되었다. 따라서 변수를 조정하지 않고 추계된 출생율은 정확한 출생율을 추계하지는 못하나 년도별 변화추세는 1971년 출산력 조사에 의한 출생율의 변화추세와 거의 일치했다.

2. 1970년 센서스자료의 5세인 Ownchildren을 중심으로 1965년의 출생율을 추계해 볼 때 사망율 수준을 높게 조정할수록 출생율은 높게 추계되며, 어머니와 같이 거주하고 있지 않은 자녀비를 높게 조정할수록 출생율은 높게 추계되었다. 어머니수의 조사누락이 높

은 수준으로 조정될수록 출생율은 낮게 추계되며, 자녀수의누락이 높은 수준으로 조정될수록 출생율은 높게 추계되었다.

그러므로 센서스 실시시 정확한 연령측정, 정확한 사망율 측정 ,어머니와 같이 거주하지 않는 자녀수 파악, 조사 누락을 줄임으로서 센서스자료를 통해 Ownchildren 방법으로 최근의 정확한 출생율 수준을 연도별로 파악할 수 있을 것이다.

An Evaluation of Level of Fertility Estimated by the Ownchildren Technique with

Varying Variables

Wonsoon Ho

Graduate School of Health, Science and Management, Yonsei University

(Direted by Prof. Dongwoo Lee)

Ownchildren technique Is used t? estimate age specific fertility rate and

eventually, total fertility rate from the number of ownchildren classified by

mother's age. Ownchildren are those who live with mother and aye related to the

head of the household.

Now, this technique is under recommendation to use for effective estimates of

fertility rates in countries where the vital statistics are under enumerated.

However, this technique requires accurate statistical information on various

variable associated with the model. Mother and child's mortality revel, number of

ownchildren, enumeration of numbers of mother and ownchildren at the time of census

tailing and age misreporting are most important variables.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of accuracy of statistical

information by the variables selected to the levels of total fertility rate

estimated by the technique. The major findings are summarized as follows:

1. This technique without adjustment of any under enumeration for the four

variables, mother and child is mortality level, umber of ownchildren, enumeration

of mother and child and age misreporting, under estimated total fertility about

12.4 per cent than the rate estimated from direct measurement from a survey.

2. On assuming accuarcy of the Variables Statistical information, this technique

estimated under or over level of fertility rate according to the accuracy

assumption in terms of per cent.

High mortality assumption produced over estimate, the more under enumeration of

the number of mothers, the rate is under estimated, the more under enumeration of

ownchildren, the more the rate over estimated, and the high assumption of the ratio

between the number of non-ownchildren and the number of ownhildren produced ever

estimate than the total fertility rate without any adjustment of under reporting or

enumeration for the variables.

3. Therefor, it is suggested that in order to estimate an accurate fertility rate

statistical information on the number of ownchildren. non-ownchildren and mother

should be correctly enumerated at the census arid evaluations of the data accuracy

roust be performed before the technique is applied.

[영문]

Ownchildren technique Is used t? estimate age specific fertility rate and eventually, total fertility rate from the number of ownchildren classified by mother's age. Ownchildren are those who live with mother and aye related to the head of the household.

Now, this technique is under recommendation to use for effective estimates of fertility rates in countries where the vital statistics are under enumerated.

However, this technique requires accurate statistical information on various variable associated with the model. Mother and child's mortality revel, number of ownchildren, enumeration of numbers of mother and ownchildren at the time of census tailing and age misreporting are most important variables.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of accuracy of statistical information by the variables selected to the levels of total fertility rate estimated by the technique. The major findings are summarized as follows:

1. This technique without adjustment of any under enumeration for the four variables, mother and child is mortality level, umber of ownchildren, enumeration of mother and child and age misreporting, under estimated total fertility about 12.4 per cent than the rate estimated from direct measurement from a survey.

2. On assuming accuarcy of the Variables Statistical information, this technique estimated under or over level of fertility rate according to the accuracy assumption in terms of per cent.

High mortality assumption produced over estimate, the more under enumeration of the number of mothers, the rate is under estimated, the more under enumeration of ownchildren, the more the rate over estimated, and the high assumption of the ratio

between the number of non-ownchildren and the number of ownhildren produced ever estimate than the total fertility rate without any adjustment of under reporting or enumeration for the variables.

3. Therefor, it is suggested that in order to estimate an accurate fertility rate statistical information on the number of ownchildren. non-ownchildren and mother should be correctly enumerated at the census arid evaluations of the data accuracy

roust be performed before the technique is applied.