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한국에서 출산력 목표량 도달을 위한 피임 보급 대상인구 추정 : 1985,1990,1995

Other Titles
 (An) estimate of the contraceptive prevalence required to reach a fertility target in Korea 
Authors
 이혜란 
Issue Date
1985
Description
보건학과/석사
Abstract
[한글] 출산력 수준은 인구증가를 가져오는 가장 중요한 요인이 되며 가족계획사업 효과를 평가하는 중요한 지표가 된다. 그런데 출산력 감소를 위해 주로 많이 사용되는 것이 피임증가를 목표로 하는 가족계획사업이다. 인구증가율의 감소를 위해 정부가 출산력을 얼마만큼 줄이기 위해 계획을 세운다면 계획에 도달하기 위해서는 피임보급대상인구를 얼마로 하여야 하는가 하는 질문에 직면한다. 연구대상은 1984년도를 기준으로 하고 1985년, 1990년, 1995년도의 피임보급대상자를 추계했다. 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 1. 1985년 합계출생률 목표량 2.3에 도달하기 위해서는 결혼율이 0.61 수준일 때 총인공유산율이 2.7, 1.8, 0.9, 로 변화함에 따라 피임보급대상자는 4,426,000명, 4,775,472명, 및 5,125,029명이 필요하다. 1990년 합계출생률 목표량 2.1에 도달하기 위해서는 결혼율이 0.56 수준일 때 총인공유산율이 2.7, 1.8, 0.9, 로 변화함에 따라 피임보급대상자는 4,937,242명, 5,365,510명, 및 5,801,022명이 필요하다. 1995년 합계출생률 목표량 2.1에 도달하기 위해서는 결혼율이 0.51 수준일 때 총인공유산율이 2.7, 1.8, 0.9로 변화함에 따라 피임보급대상자는 5,123,909명, 5,644,757명, 및 6,165,633명이 필요하다. 2. 피임보급률은 합계출생률 목표량이 적어질수록 높아졌다. 피임보급률은 결혼율이 감소될수록 낮아졌다. 피임보급률은 총인공유산율이 감소될수록 높아졌다. 피임보급률은 총인공유산율 면동, 결혼율 변동, 합계출생률 목표량 수준에 민감하나 합계출생률 목표량 수준보다는 결혼율, 결혼율 보다는 총인공유산율 변동에 더 민감하였다.
[영문] Fertility level is an important factor of population increase, and also is an important index in evaluating the effectiveness of family planning programmes. Recently, the most of the government in developing countries family planning programmes aim at increasing the number of contraceptive users to reduce fertility, which is the most accepted approach in the reduction of fertility level. If, as is often the case, governments have set family planning targets as the national development planning, then family planning administrators are faced with the question of how many contraceptive users are needed to achieve the goal of fertility reduction. This study, therefore, aimed to estimate the number of contraceptive users by applying Bongaarts' model. Major findings from the estimated are summarized as follows: 1. The number of contraceptive users is 4,426,000, 4,775,472, 5,125,029 as the total abortion rate is changing to 2.7, 1.8, 0.9 when marriage rate in 0.61 in order that the target of total fertility rate should reach 2.3 in 1985. The number of contraceptive users is 4,937,242, 5,365,510, 5,801,022, as the total abortion rate is changing to 2.7, 1.8, 0.9 when marriage rate is 0.56 in order that the target of total fertility rate should rech 2.1 in 1990. The number of contraceptive users must be 5,123,909, 5,644,757, 6,165,633 as the total abortion rate is changing to 2.7, 1.8, 0.9 when marriage rate is 0.51 in order that the target of total fertility rate should reach 2.1 in 1995. 2. The rate of contraceptive prevalence increased by 0.8-0.9 percent, as the target of total fertility rate decreased by 0.1. If the total abortion rate maintains the level of 1984 year, the rate of contraceptive prevalence should decrease by 2.7 percent, 3.1 percent, as the marriage rate decreasing by 0.05 in the case that the target of total fertility rete is 2.3. In the case that the target of toal fertility rate is 2.2, as the marriage rate decreasing by 0.05, the rate of contraceptive prevalence should decrease by 2.6 percent, 3.1 percent. In the case that the target of total fertility rate is 2.1, as the marriage rate decreasing by 0.05, the rate of contraceptive prevalence should decrease by 2.5 percent, 2.9 percent. If the marriage rate maintains the level of 1984 year, regardless of the target of total fertility rate, the rate of contraceptive prevalence should increase by 5.1 percent, as the total abortion rate decreasing by 0.9. The rate of contraceptive prevalence is sensitive to variation of marriage rate and variation of total abortion rate and variation of the target of total fertility rate. There would be 0.8-0.9 percent, variation in the rate of contraceptive prevalence, as the target of total fertility rate is Changing and 2-3.7percent, variation in the rate of contraceptive prevalence, as the marriage rate is changing and 5.1-6.2 percent, variation in the rate of contraceptive prevalence, as the total abortion rate is changing. Therefore, the rate of contraceptive prevalence is more sensitive to marriage rate than to the target of tatal fertility rate and it is more sensitive to the total abortion rate than to the marriage rate.
URI
http://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/116722
Appears in Collections:
2. 학위논문 > 4. Graduate School of Public Health (보건대학원) > 석사
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